There are five teams fighting for two spots
Humour us for just a moment and assume that over the course of the final round there won’t be any rain and there won’t be any outright results: just twenty teams fighting over six points each. If that were to happen, then in First Grade we have five teams fighting over the two remaining spots in the top six.
Easts (60), St George (60), Randwick-Petersham (59) and Manly (57) can’t miss out. Bankstown (50) holds its place if it beats Northern District. Parramatta (49) hangs on if it beats Fairfield. Sydney University dropped out of the six on Saturday when it was unable to dislodge Luke Ritchie and Andrew Ritchie, who salvaged a draw for Sutherland (Sutherland has lots of players called Ritchie. It’s an embarrassment of Ritchies). The Students now need to beat UTS North Sydney and hope that one of Parramatta and Bankstown stumbles. Behind them, Mosman (46) can burgle a spot if they beat Sutherland and two of Bankstown, Parramatta and Sydney University lose, while Gordon (45) slips in if it beats Randwick-Petersham and three of Bankstown, Parramatta, Sydney University and Mosman lose.
But… rain is forecast from Wednesday to Monday, and there’s bound to be an outright somewhere. Which are just a couple of the reasons why we don’t do predictions.
There’s a head-to-head playoff in Seconds
Remarkably, there’s only one spot in the top six up for grabs in Seconds, only two teams in contention for it, and those two teams play each other. St George (74), Parramatta (71), Manly (67), Northern District (64) and Mosman (63) will all be playing on into March. Sydney University (59) and North Sydney (56) will play each other for the last available spot. What adds a little spice to it is that the Students’ form player is a former North Sydney bear, opening bowler Harrison May. May demolished Sutherland twice in the last round, taking a career-best 7-33 and 4-38 to spearhead the Students to outright points. And among the wickets for the Bears last weekend was former University off-spinner Liam Whitaker, so it’s a bit like Opposite Day.
Third Grade is tight
Barring outrights, the top five times in Thirds are certain to progress to the finals: that’s Wests (63), St George (60), Northern District (59), Manly (59) and Easts (55). But five teams could yet claim the sixth spot. Penrith (49) could make themselves safe by beating Blacktown, but if they slip up, Parramatta (48) can get in by beating Fairfield. Randwick-Petersham (47) can claim a place by beating Gordon but only if Penrith and Parramatta also lose; if Penrith, Parramatta and Randwick-Petersham all lose, Mosman (45) can pass them all by beating Sutherland. And there will be some extreme optimists at Kensington who are aware that University of NSW (43) can reach the finals if they wallop Easts massively and the four teams above them lose.
Two spots are up for grabs in Fourths
In Fourth Grade, University of NSW (71), Easts (70), Manly (62) and St George (58) are all safely through to the finals. Easts jumped within a point of University of NSW by thumping Fairfield outright, largely through the bowling of tweaker Ben van Emden, who grabbed 5-12 and 4-16. UTS North Sydney (53) can seal a spot by beating Sydney University (52), but the Students can leapfrog the Bears if they win. Northern District (52) can hold its place in the six by beating Bankstown (48), but will fall behind Bankstown if they lose. And Parramatta (51) can come through on the rails by beating Fairfield and having other results fall its way.
Weird things happen in Fifth Grade
Fifth Grade is where weird things happen and outright results are quite common late in the season, so our “six points only” assumption would be misguided here. Logically, Easts (75), Parramatta (71), Fairfield (68), Manly (66) and St George (63) look safe. Penrith (59) plays Blacktown, and should get through safely if they win. But UTS North Sydney (54) plays Sydney University, who were bowled out for 50 by Sutherland last round, so they may feel that ten points aren’t beyond them. And Northern District (52) plays Bankstown, who managed only 113 last weekend, so they will expect that ten points might be possible. Even Randwick-Petersham (50) will think they have a pathway to the finals, since they play Gordon, who are running dead last. Expect weirdness.